Phariyali Namkeen from Indore: Export Potential, Product Differentiation, and Market Development

A Case-cum-Research Paper on Fasting-Compliant Traditional Snacks, MSME Export Competitiveness, International Marketing, and Logistics

Abstract

Indore, Madhya Pradesh, is widely recognized as a major centre of India's traditional namkeen industry. The city's established food-processing ecosystem, entrepreneurial enterprises, raw material networks, packaging capabilities, and transport infrastructure provide a foundation for the development of regional snack exports. Among its differentiated products, Phariyali (Fariyali/Farali/Falahari) namkeen represents a niche category associated with religious fasting and dietary practices, particularly among Indian consumers.

This case-cum-research paper examines the potential of Indore's Phariyali namkeen industry to develop international markets, with particular reference to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Kingdom (UK), the United States (USA), and Canada. Sunhare Food Products is considered an exploratory case entity because it is publicly listed as an exporter and offers Potato Fariyali Sweet Mixture Namkeen. However, publicly available evidence does not establish that this specific product has completed an export transaction.

The paper investigates product adaptability, export competitiveness, market segmentation, production economics, international logistics, regulatory requirements, and enterprise-level constraints. It develops a hypothetical export business model, strategic recommendations, and a research framework for future empirical validation.

The study concludes that Indore's Phariyali namkeen may possess export potential through product differentiation, diaspora-oriented marketing, shelf-life improvement, standardized production, and collective MSME export strategies. Nevertheless, export potential must not be equated with proven export performance.

Keywords: Indore, Phariyali Namkeen, Fariyali Mixture, MSME Exports, Food Processing, International Marketing, Logistics, Diaspora Markets, Product Differentiation.

1. Introduction

India's traditional snack industry represents an important intersection of food culture, entrepreneurship, employment, regional identity, and commercial opportunity. Namkeen products have evolved from locally manufactured snacks into branded, packaged products distributed through domestic retail networks and international Indian grocery markets.

Indore has developed a strong reputation for namkeen production. Its industry includes traditional manufacturers, modern food-processing enterprises, wholesalers, retailers, and packaged-food brands.

However, the international snack market is highly competitive. Indian exporters face competition from established brands, regional snack manufacturers, and global food companies. Export success requires more than product availability; it depends on consistent quality, consumer preferences, pricing, shelf life, packaging, food safety compliance, and logistics.

Phariyali namkeen offers an interesting opportunity because of its distinctive positioning.

Unlike conventional namkeen varieties, Fariyali or Farali products are associated with fasting-compliant food practices. Common ingredients may include potato, sabudana (tapioca pearls), peanuts, rock salt, and selected spices, depending on the recipe and fasting tradition.

This characteristic creates a specialized market segment among consumers seeking traditional fasting foods outside India.

The central research problem is:

Can Indore transform the availability of Phariyali namkeen into a commercially viable, internationally competitive, and sustainable export category?

The paper approaches this question through an exploratory case study and a proposed export development framework.

2. Industry Background: Indore's Namkeen Ecosystem

Indore's namkeen industry is supported by:

• Established snack manufacturing enterprises.

• Availability of traditional recipes and skilled workers.

• Raw material procurement networks.

• Wholesale and retail distribution channels.

• Packaging and food-processing services.

• Domestic demand and brand recognition.

• Access to road, air cargo, and broader export logistics networks.

The industry data provided in the research brief indicate approximately 100–125 tonnes of namkeen production daily, an annual industry value of ₹800–1,000 crore, and employment of approximately 80,000–100,000 people directly and indirectly.

These figures should be treated as reported industry estimates, not independently verified official statistics.

2.1 Phariyali namkeen as a differentiated product

The Phariyali category may include:

Product	Principal ingredients	Potential consumer positioning
Potato Fariyali Sweet Mixture	Potato-based ingredients, peanuts, spices, sweetening ingredients	Traditional fasting snack
Sabudana Chivda	Sabudana, peanuts, potato, selected spices	Religious fasting and ethnic food
Potato Farali Chiwda	Potato flakes or related ingredients	Convenient packaged snack
Green Fariyali Mixture	Ingredients and seasoning depending on formulation	Regional specialty snack
Falahari Namkeen	Fasting-compatible ingredients	Specialized dietary and cultural market

Important: Fasting practices differ by community and individual. Products must not be marketed as universally fasting-compliant without checking the ingredient composition and applicable consumer requirements.

3. Exploratory Case Study: Sunhare Food Products, Indore

3.1 Case background

Sunhare Food Products is identified in the supplied research brief as an Indore-based enterprise listed on IndiaMART as an exporter. Its publicly listed product range includes Potato Fariyali Sweet Mixture Namkeen, Potato Lachha, and Raw Potato Lachha.

This makes the enterprise a relevant candidate for examining the export potential of Phariyali namkeen.

The case must be interpreted carefully:

• The enterprise's reported exporter classification provides an indication of export-oriented business activity.

• Its listing of a Fariyali product establishes product availability.

• The public listing alone does not prove that the Fariyali product has been exported.

• Export destination, shipment quantity, transaction value, buyer identity, and export frequency remain unverified.

Therefore, the enterprise is selected as a potential export case, not as a documented successful Fariyali export case.

3.2 The business problem

The enterprise faces a strategic question:

Should Phariyali namkeen remain a domestically marketed fasting product, or should it be developed as an internationally differentiated Indian snack?

The decision involves five interrelated issues.

Business dimension	Strategic issue
Product	Is the recipe suitable for international consumers?
Market	Is overseas demand seasonal or year-round?
Production	Can consistent quality be maintained across batches?
Marketing	Can the product differentiate itself from conventional Indian namkeen?
Export	Can logistics and compliance costs be managed profitably?

3.3 Case decision scenario

The following is a constructed managerial scenario, not a reported company decision.

The management of Sunhare Food Products is considering introducing an export-oriented Fariyali namkeen range. It must decide whether to:

1. Continue focusing exclusively on domestic markets.

2. Sell through Indian diaspora grocery stores in the UAE.

3. Develop a multi-country export strategy covering the UAE, UK, USA, and Canada.

4. Partner with an established Indian snack exporter.

5. Participate in a collective export consortium with other Indore namkeen manufacturers.

The recommended strategy is a phased approach beginning with a limited pilot shipment, subject to buyer interest, product compliance, and confirmed logistics.

4. Review of Literature and Industry Context

The research framework draws upon established concepts in international marketing, entrepreneurship, and supply chain management.

4.1 Product differentiation theory

Porter (1985) explains that firms can create competitive advantage by offering distinctive value rather than competing exclusively on price.

Phariyali namkeen can potentially differentiate itself through:

• Traditional fasting-food identity.

• Regional Indore recipes.

• Distinctive potato and sabudana formulations.

• Convenient, ready-to-eat packaging.

• Cultural familiarity among diaspora consumers.

However, differentiation should be based on actual consumer value, not merely product naming.

4.2 Internationalization of MSMEs

Johanson and Vahlne (1977) describe internationalization as a process in which firms gradually increase their overseas commitment through learning and market experience.

For an Indore-based small or medium enterprise, this suggests a gradual approach:

• Identify an overseas buyer.

• Conduct a product and market feasibility study.

• Test a limited export shipment.

• Evaluate buyer feedback.

• Expand only after achieving repeat orders.

4.3 Supply chain and logistics

Christopher (2016) emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chain management in achieving competitiveness.

For packaged namkeen, international logistics must protect:

• Product freshness.

• Crispness and texture.

• Packaging integrity.

• Shelf life.

• Delivery schedules.

• Cost efficiency.

The 2026 West Asia disruptions reported in Indian export coverage demonstrate how geopolitical developments can affect shipping time, freight costs, and market access. The Government of India also introduced coordinated export-logistics measures in response to the disruptions.

Press Information Bureau+2

4.4 Research gap

The existing industry context establishes that Indore possesses a namkeen manufacturing ecosystem and that Fariyali products are commercially available.

However, the following research questions remain insufficiently documented in public sources:

• Actual Phariyali namkeen export performance from Indore.

• International consumer demand for fasting-compliant namkeen.

• Product-specific export profitability.

• The effect of packaging and shelf life on overseas sales.

• Comparative competitiveness of Indore, Gujarat, and Maharashtra manufacturers.

This paper attempts to develop an analytical framework to investigate these gaps.

5. Research Objectives

The study has the following objectives:

1. To examine the export potential of Phariyali namkeen manufactured in Indore.

2. To study the product differentiation opportunities in international markets.

3. To identify potential overseas consumer segments and geographical markets.

4. To analyse the production, pricing, packaging, and logistics requirements for export.

5. To identify barriers faced by MSMEs in developing niche food exports.

6. To propose an export development strategy for Indore's Phariyali namkeen manufacturers.

7. To develop a future empirical research model for validating international demand.

6. Research Questions and Hypotheses

6.1 Research questions

No.	Research question
RQ1	Does fasting-related product differentiation influence overseas purchase intention?
RQ2	Does packaging quality influence consumer willingness to pay?
RQ3	Is international demand seasonal or continuous?
RQ4	Does product shelf life affect export-market selection?
RQ5	Do logistics costs significantly affect export profitability?
RQ6	Does collective exporting improve MSME export competitiveness?

6.2 Proposed hypotheses

These hypotheses are proposed for future empirical testing. They are not presented as statistically established findings.

• H1: Product differentiation has a positive relationship with overseas consumer purchase intention.

• H2: Perceived packaging quality has a positive relationship with willingness to pay.

• H3: Perceived authenticity has a positive relationship with consumer preference for Phariyali namkeen.

• H4: Higher logistics costs have a negative relationship with export profitability.

• H5: Longer validated shelf life has a positive relationship with the feasibility of distant export markets.

• H6: Collective export participation has a positive relationship with MSME export competitiveness.

• H7: Year-round availability has a positive relationship with repeat purchase intention.

7. Research Methodology

Exploratory Case Study

7.1 Research design

The study adopts a qualitative exploratory case-study design supported by secondary industry information and a proposed quantitative research framework.

The study is not a completed empirical survey. It does not claim to have collected company interviews, overseas consumer responses, customs records, or primary export data.

7.2 Unit of analysis

The unit of analysis is:

• Phariyali namkeen as an export-oriented food product.

• Sunhare Food Products as a potential export entity.

• Indore's namkeen manufacturing cluster as the regional industrial ecosystem.

7.3 Data sources

Data source	Purpose	Status
Industry reports and media coverage	Understand Indore's namkeen ecosystem	Secondary information
IndiaMART product listing	Identify product availability and exporter label	Requires direct verification
TradeIndia product listings	Identify additional Fariyali suppliers	Supplier identification
FSSAI and APEDA documents	Regulatory and export guidance	Documentary sources
Customs records	Establish actual export transactions	Not yet obtained
Enterprise interviews	Verify export activity and constraints	Proposed
Overseas consumer survey	Assess demand and preferences	Proposed

7.4 Methodological limitations

The paper has four major limitations.

First, product availability does not establish export activity.

Second, industry-level namkeen export information cannot be attributed to the Phariyali product category.

Third, no company-specific export volume, value, or destination information has been established.

Fourth, proposed hypotheses and business projections require empirical validation.

These limitations are integral to the study and must be retained in any academic submission.

8. International Market Analysis

The overseas market strategy should focus on consumer groups with an existing familiarity with Indian food traditions.

8.1 Potential export markets

Market	Potential target customers	Strategic opportunity	Major consideration
UAE	Indian expatriates, ethnic grocery consumers	Geographic proximity and established Indian food retail	Import compliance and logistics volatility
UK	Indian diaspora and ethnic food consumers	Established Indian grocery retail channels	Food labelling and importer requirements
USA	Indian diaspora, ethnic grocery retailers	Large geographically dispersed customer base	Long-distance logistics and compliance
Canada	Indian diaspora and ethnic grocery retailers	Cultural familiarity and niche snack demand	Freight, food import requirements, and distribution costs
Oman	Indian expatriates and traditional food consumers	Regional market proximity	Dependence on Gulf logistics

These are proposed target markets, not confirmed destinations for Sunhare's Fariyali product.

8.2 Seasonal versus year-round demand

Phariyali namkeen may experience demand peaks during:

• Navratri.

• Ekadashi fasting periods.

• Shravan month.

• Other regional fasting festivals.

• Religious and cultural occasions.

However, year-round demand may also be possible if the product is positioned as:

• A traditional Indian snack.

• A potato-based savoury mixture.

• A convenient ethnic food.

• A specialty product for diaspora households.

The company should distinguish between religious fasting demand and ordinary snack demand.

8.3 Proposed market segmentation

Cultural segment

Indian diaspora consumers seeking familiar traditional food products.

Fasting-oriented segment

Consumers looking for food products that match their fasting practices and ingredient restrictions.

Convenience segment

Consumers interested in packaged ready-to-eat snacks with clear ingredient and storage information.

9. Product Planning and Export Adaptation

9.1 Product development strategy

The company should develop an export-specific product range rather than simply exporting the existing domestic product.

Product decision	Proposed recommendation
Recipe	Standardize ingredients and spice levels
Taste	Offer traditional and mildly seasoned variants
Texture	Maintain crispness and reduce moisture absorption
Pack sizes	Introduce small trial packs and family packs
Packaging	Use moisture- and oxygen-barrier packaging validated for the product
Branding	Highlight Indore's traditional snack heritage
Labelling	Include ingredients, allergens, nutrition, storage, batch and date information
Shelf life	Establish through appropriate product testing
Product claims	Use only verifiable fasting-compliant, dietary, or quality claims

9.2 Packaging innovation

Packaging should be treated as a strategic investment rather than a routine production cost.

Recommended features:

• High-barrier laminated packaging.

• Nitrogen flushing, where technically suitable.

• Resealable family packs.

• Tamper-evident seals.

• Strong cartons for export transportation.

• Arabic and English labels for the UAE market, where applicable.

• Destination-specific language and labelling requirements.

A product's shelf life should not be arbitrarily declared. It should be established using validated testing under suitable storage conditions.

9.3 Product positioning

Proposed positioning statement:

"Indore's Traditional Fariyali Namkeen — A distinctive Indian savoury snack inspired by traditional fasting-food recipes and crafted for modern packaged-food markets."

This positioning emphasizes origin, tradition, and convenience without making unverified health claims.

10. Export Pricing and Cost Analysis

Export pricing is a central determinant of commercial viability.

An exporter must consider manufacturing costs, packaging, compliance, freight, insurance, distributor margins, and exchange-rate risk.

10.1 Export cost structure

Illustrative analytical framework — no company-specific cost figures are available.

Cost component	Description
Raw materials	Potato, sabudana, peanuts, spices, oil, salt, etc.
Direct labour	Manufacturing, processing, and packing
Manufacturing overhead	Electricity, machinery, rent, maintenance
Packaging	Primary packaging, labels, cartons
Quality testing	Product, microbiological, and shelf-life testing
Export documentation	Documentation and compliance expenses
Inland transportation	Indore to cargo terminal or port
Freight	Air or sea transportation
Insurance	Cargo protection
Export marketing	Sampling, buyer development, promotion
Distributor margin	Overseas wholesaler or retail distribution

10.2 Export pricing formula

\[ \text{Total Export Cost}=\text{Production Cost}+\text{Packaging Cost}+\text{Compliance Cost}+\text{Logistics Cost}+\text{Marketing Cost} \]

For a target profit margin expressed as a proportion of selling price:

\[ \text{Export Selling Price}=\frac{\text{Total Export Cost}}{1-\text{Target Profit Margin}} \]

For example, a target margin of 20% means the selling price is calculated by dividing total cost by 0.80.

This is a pricing illustration, not a claim regarding actual company costs or margins.

10.3 Break-even analysis

The company should calculate the minimum export quantity required to recover its fixed export-development expenses.

\[ \text{Break-even Quantity}=\frac{\text{Fixed Export Costs}}{\text{Selling Price per Unit}-\text{Variable Cost per Unit}} \]

Fixed costs may include product testing, export-market development, artwork, certification, and buyer acquisition.

Variable costs may include ingredients, packaging, production, freight, and unit-level handling.

The product should not be exported merely because an overseas buyer offers a higher nominal price. The final decision must be based on net contribution after all export-related costs.

11. International Marketing Strategy

11.1 The 4Ps marketing framework

Product

Develop differentiated Fariyali products with standardized recipes, reliable shelf life, and export-ready packaging.

ド

Place

Target Indian grocery stores, ethnic food distributors, diaspora-oriented online retailers, and specialist importers.

Promotion

Use festival-oriented promotions, product sampling, digital marketing, and cultural storytelling.

Price

Use trial-pack pricing, competitive distributor pricing, and value-based pricing for differentiated products.

11.2 Digital marketing strategy

The enterprise should establish a digital export identity through:

• A multilingual product website.

• B2B product catalogues.

• IndiaMART and other relevant B2B platforms.

• Export buyer directories.

• LinkedIn-based importer outreach.

• Product demonstration videos.

• Festival-season social media campaigns.

• Online sampling and distributor enquiries.

A specific promotional campaign could be developed under the theme:

"From Indore's Namkeen Tradition to the Global Indian Pantry."

11.3 Brand development suggestions

The product should not compete exclusively on low price.

It should develop brand value through:

1. Regional authenticity.

2. Standardized product quality.

3. Transparent ingredients.

4. Consistent packaging.

5. Reliability of supply.

6. Buyer-oriented customer service.

7. A distinctive fasting-food category identity.

12. International Logistics and Export Operations

12.1 Export logistics model

Factor	Air freight	Sea freight
Transit time	Generally faster	Generally slower
Freight cost	Higher	Lower per unit at scale
Shipment size	Suitable for small shipments	Suitable for larger shipments
Market testing	Useful for pilot consignments	Useful for established orders
Risk	High freight cost may reduce margin	Longer transit may affect product quality
Recommended use	Urgent, small, high-value orders	Repeat bulk shipments

For Phariyali namkeen, sea freight may be more economical after demand is established. Air freight may be appropriate for small pilot orders or time-sensitive replenishment.

The choice must be based on actual quotations, product shelf-life validation, and delivery commitments.

12.3 West Asia logistics risk

The 2026 West Asia disruption is relevant to this case because the UAE and Oman are proposed target markets.

Reports on Indian food exports during 2026 describe disrupted maritime routes, higher freight expenses, and longer transit periods.

BusinessToday+1

Recommended mitigation:

• Avoid dependence on one overseas market.

• Obtain quotations from multiple freight providers.

• Include freight-escalation clauses in buyer contracts.

• Maintain contingency inventory only within validated shelf-life limits.

• Use diversified shipping routes where commercially feasible.

• Consider insurance and contractual risk allocation.

• Develop North American and UK markets alongside Gulf markets.

13. Export Regulatory and Quality Compliance

Food export compliance is a fundamental requirement.

13.1 Indian export preparation

The enterprise should verify its requirements with the relevant authorities and export specialists, including:

• Appropriate business registration.

• Importer Exporter Code (IEC) from DGFT.

• Applicable FSSAI licensing and food safety requirements.

• Product classification and customs documentation.

• Applicable APEDA registration or other export-promotion requirements, where relevant.

• Export invoice and packing list.

• Certificate of Origin, when required.

• Laboratory testing and destination-specific certifications.

• Buyer-specific documentation.

FSSAI's FAQ states that an NOC from FSSAI is not required simply for exporting food products from India. This does not remove the obligation to comply with applicable Indian food laws and destination-country rules.

FSSAI FAQ MENTOR+1

13.2 UAE market compliance

APEDA's advisory for food exports to Dubai identifies label elements such as product name, ingredients, additives, dates, manufacturer/importer details, net weight, country of origin, storage information, and nutrition facts. It also identifies Arabic-language labelling requirements.

APEDA

The exporter should confirm current UAE requirements with the importing entity and relevant regulatory authorities before shipment.

13.3 Quality management recommendations

Quality area	Proposed control
Raw material	Supplier approval and traceability
Oil	Appropriate quality monitoring and replacement
Processing	Standard operating procedures
Hygiene	Sanitation and personnel hygiene controls
Product	Batch-wise quality inspection
Packaging	Seal integrity and moisture barrier testing
Shelf life	Validated testing
Export	Destination-specific compliance review
Consumer safety	Accurate allergen declaration

Potential allergens such as peanuts must be clearly declared according to the applicable regulations.

14. SWOT Analysis of Indore's Phariyali Namkeen Export Potential

Strengths

• Established namkeen cluster

• Traditional product identity

• Skilled workforce

• Existing supplier networks

• Differentiated fasting-food category

Weaknesses

• Export transactions unverified

• Limited product-specific data

• Possible small production batches

• Export compliance expenses

• Brand recognition gaps

Opportunities

• Indian diaspora markets

• Specialty food retailers

• E-commerce distribution

• Private-label manufacturing

• Collective export consortium

Threats

• Freight cost volatility

• Geopolitical disruptions

• Food safety rejection

• Competitor brands

• Changing consumer preferences

15. Strategic Suggestions and Recommendations

The following recommendations are proposed for Sunhare Food Products and other Fariyali namkeen manufacturers in Indore.

15.1 Enterprise-level recommendations

Recommendation 1: Verify actual export capability

Before developing an international strategy, the enterprise should establish whether it currently exports Fariyali namkeen.

The following information should be obtained:

• Whether any completed export transaction exists.

• Export destinations.

• Product-wise export quantity.

• Approximate export value.

• Buyer type.

• Shipment frequency.

• Packaging specifications.

• Shelf-life details.

The distinction between general exporter status and product-specific export performance is essential.

Recommendation 2: Develop an export-ready product

The enterprise should establish:

• Standardized recipes.

• Batch-wise quality control.

• Reliable packaging.

• Validated shelf life.

• Allergen declarations.

• Export-ready labels.

• Production traceability.

Recommendation 3: Start with a pilot market

The UAE may be considered as a first potential market because of its geographic proximity and established Indian food retail channels.

However, a pilot should be undertaken only after identifying an importer and verifying current import requirements.

Recommendation 4: Develop a multi-market strategy

The enterprise should not rely exclusively on the Gulf region.

The UK, USA, and Canada may be explored as additional markets through diaspora-oriented importers.

Recommendation 5: Use collective exporting

Small manufacturers may lack the scale needed to independently manage export documentation, freight, overseas marketing, and distributor relationships.

A collective export platform could provide shared services.

15.2 Government and institutional recommendations

Stakeholder	Proposed role
Madhya Pradesh Government	Support food-processing cluster development
Indore Namkeen association	Facilitate buyer connections and common export services
APEDA	Provide relevant export guidance and market-development support
DGFT	Support IEC and export-procedure awareness
FSSAI	Provide applicable food safety and licensing guidance
Universities	Conduct consumer research and feasibility studies
Packaging institutes	Support product packaging and shelf-life development
Banks and financial institutions	Evaluate working-capital and export-finance needs
Logistics companies	Offer consolidated freight and shipment planning

Recommendation 6: Establish an Indore Namkeen Export Facilitation Centre

A proposed centre could provide:

• Common testing and quality-assurance facilities.

• Export documentation assistance.

• International buyer databases.

• Product catalogue development.

• Packaging advisory services.

• Export market intelligence.

• Shared freight coordination.

• Training for MSME exporters.

This proposal could support not only Phariyali namkeen but also other traditional Indore snack products.

15.3 Academic and research recommendations

Universities and management institutions in Indore could develop a research project on:

• International consumer behaviour.

• Export feasibility.

• Food product innovation.

• MSME export barriers.

• Regional industrial competitiveness.

• Supply chain resilience.

• Digital international marketing.

The project could combine management, economics, marketing, logistics, and entrepreneurship research.

16. Proposed Export Development Model 

The model follows a learning-based internationalization approach. Export expansion should occur after successful product validation, buyer acceptance, and evidence of repeat demand.

17. Proposed Empirical Research Model

The paper can be extended into a full empirical study by conducting a survey of overseas consumers and interviews with Indian exporters.

17.2 Proposed variables

Variable	Measurement concept
Product differentiation	Perceived uniqueness of Fariyali namkeen
Authenticity	Perceived connection with Indian traditional food
Packaging quality	Protection, appearance, convenience
Price perception	Perceived affordability and value
Food compliance	Consumer confidence in ingredient suitability
Consumer trust	Confidence in brand and product safety
Purchase intention	Likelihood of purchasing
Repeat purchase intention	Likelihood of purchasing again

17.3 Proposed analytical techniques

The research may use:

• Descriptive statistics.

• Reliability analysis using Cronbach's alpha.

• Exploratory factor analysis.

• Correlation analysis.

• Multiple regression.

• ANOVA for market-group comparisons.

• Structural Equation Modelling, where sample size and data quality permit.

No statistical findings are claimed in this paper because the required primary data have not yet been collected.

18. Implementation Roadmap

Proposed timeline: 12 months, subject to company readiness and buyer response.

1. Months 1–2: Product and enterprise verification

   Confirm exporter status, product formulation, production capacity, and actual transaction history.

2. Months 3–4: Quality and packaging development

   Standardize the product, conduct testing, establish shelf-life evidence, and develop export packaging.

3. Months 5–6: Market research

   Identify potential importers, diaspora retailers, and consumer segments in the UAE and other selected markets.

4. Months 7–8: Buyer engagement

   Prepare samples, obtain quotations, negotiate terms, and complete compliance verification.

5. Months 9–10: Pilot shipment

   Conduct a limited export shipment if the buyer order, product compliance, and logistics are confirmed.

6. Months 11–12: Performance evaluation

   Assess buyer feedback, repeat orders, profitability, product quality, and potential market expansion.

18.1 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

KPI	Purpose
Number of qualified overseas buyers	Measure market development
Number of sample requests	Assess buyer interest
Conversion of samples to orders	Measure commercial acceptance
Export contribution margin	Assess profitability
Product rejection rate	Evaluate quality
On-time delivery rate	Evaluate logistics
Repeat order ratio	Assess sustained demand
Number of markets served	Measure diversification
Customer satisfaction	Evaluate product acceptance

These KPIs should be measured against actual operational records, not estimated values.

19. Conclusion

Indore's Phariyali namkeen industry represents an emerging research opportunity at the intersection of traditional food products, regional entrepreneurship, international marketing, and MSME export development.

The city's established namkeen manufacturing ecosystem offers a potential foundation for developing specialized international snack products. Phariyali namkeen may provide a differentiated proposition because of its cultural association with fasting and traditional Indian food practices.

The exploratory case of Sunhare Food Products demonstrates how product availability and an exporter classification can provide a starting point for research. Nevertheless, the existence of a listed product cannot establish that the product has been exported successfully.

The proposed study identifies five major requirements for developing export potential:

1. Product standardization and quality assurance.

2. Export-oriented packaging and validated shelf life.

3. Overseas consumer and market research.

4. Compliance with Indian and destination-country regulations.

5. Cost-efficient logistics and distributor development.

The study recommends a phased export development strategy, beginning with enterprise verification and market research, followed by product testing, buyer identification, pilot shipments, and performance evaluation.

A collective export facilitation model involving Indore's manufacturers, industry associations, government institutions, and academic institutions may improve the export readiness of small enterprises.

The central conclusion is that Indore's Phariyali namkeen has a plausible export opportunity, but its product-specific international trade performance remains an empirical question requiring company-level and customs-level verification.

The transition from domestic product availability to documented export success should therefore become the central focus of future research.

Appendix A. Export Feasibility Assessment Checklist

Proposed enterprise-level checklist for field research.

Export readiness

0/14

Company's legal and business registration verified

IEC and applicable food licensing verified

Actual Phariyali export transaction history obtained

Product formulation standardized

Ingredients and allergen declaration verified

Shelf-life testing completed

Export packaging validated

Target-market import requirements checked

Overseas buyer identified

Freight quotations obtained

Export pricing and contribution margin calculated

Pilot shipment feasibility confirmed

Buyer feedback collection mechanism established

Repeat-order evaluation plan prepared

Reset checklist

Appendix B. Proposed Questionnaire for Overseas Consumers

A research instrument for future primary-data collection. Responses have not been collected.

Section I: Consumer profile

1. Country of residence.

2. Age group.

3. Frequency of purchasing Indian snacks.

4. Familiarity with Fariyali or Farali namkeen.

5. Frequency of observing or purchasing fasting-related food products.

Section II: Product perception

Use a five-point Likert scale:

1 = Strongly Disagree

2 = Disagree

3 = Neutral

4 = Agree

5 = Strongly Agree

Statement	Variable
Fariyali namkeen offers a distinctive taste.	Product differentiation
I value traditional Indian fasting-food products.	Authenticity
Attractive packaging influences my purchase.	Packaging quality
I would purchase Fariyali namkeen if it were available locally.	Purchase intention
I consider the product's price before purchasing.	Price perception
I trust products with transparent ingredient information.	Consumer trust
I would purchase the product throughout the year.	Year-round demand
I would recommend the product to others.	Recommendation intention

Section III: Consumer behaviour

• Preferred pack size.

• Preferred purchase channel.

• Acceptable price range.

• Preferred flavour.

• Purchase frequency.

• Preference for traditional versus modern packaging.

• Whether demand is linked primarily to fasting periods or regular snacking.

Section IV: Open-ended questions

1. What would encourage you to purchase Indore's Fariyali namkeen?

2. What concerns would prevent you from purchasing it?

3. Which packaging and product improvements would you recommend?

Appendix C. Proposed Interview Schedule for Sunhare Food Products

The following questions are intended for direct company verification.

1. Does your company currently manufacture Potato Fariyali Sweet Mixture Namkeen?

2. Is your enterprise currently involved in exports?

3. Has this specific Fariyali product ever been exported in a completed transaction?

4. If yes, which countries have received the product?

5. What are the approximate export quantities and shipment frequencies?

6. What pack sizes are used for export?

7. What shelf life has been established through testing?

8. Which international certifications or buyer requirements apply?

9. What are the principal production and packaging costs?

10. What challenges arise in international logistics?

11. Do overseas consumers purchase the product mainly during fasting seasons?

12. What are the principal barriers to increasing exports?

The answers would provide the primary evidence needed to convert this exploratory case into a documented company case study.

Appendix D. Proposed Export Cost Worksheet

Fill with actual enterprise quotations and accounting records.

Raw materials per kg (₹)

Direct labour per kg (₹)

Manufacturing overhead per kg (₹)

Packaging per kg (₹)

Quality and compliance per kg (₹)

Inland transportation per kg (₹)

International freight per kg (₹)

Insurance and other costs per kg (₹)

Target profit margin (%)

Illustrative calculator based on entered values

Total export cost per kg

₹0

Selling price per kg at target margin

₹0

This calculator excludes any costs not entered and does not represent actual Sunhare Food Products export economics.

References

The following references support the industry background, regulatory discussion, and logistics analysis.

1. Business Standard. (2024, September 22). Indore Namkeen Cluster: The industry produces approximately 100–125 tonnes of namkeen daily and has an estimated annual value of ₹800–1,000 crore.

बिज़नेस स्टैंडर्ड

2. Economic Times Manufacturing. (2025, February 5). Indore namkeen sector seeks dedicated investment session during Global Investors Summit.

ETManufacturing.in

3. APEDA. (2019, January 18). Advisory for exports of food items to Dubai. Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India. Official advisory

4. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India. (2018, May 23). Whether NOC from FSSAI is required for export? FSSAI FAQ

5. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India. Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006; Food Safety and Standards (Labelling and Display) Regulations, 2020. FSSAI regulatory resources

6. Press Information Bureau, Government of India. (2026, March 19). Government approves RELIEF – Resilience & Logistics Intervention for Export Facilitation.

Press Information Bureau

7. Press Information Bureau, Government of India. (2026, April 10). Department of Commerce and Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways hold high-level meetings to address packaging, logistics and shipping challenges amid West Asia situation.

Press Information Bureau

8. The Times of India. (2026, April 16). West Asia crisis hits Indore confectionery units, makers slash output by 50%.

The Times of India

9. Christopher, M. (2016). Logistics & Supply Chain Management (5th ed.). Pearson.

10. Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J.-E. (1977). The internationalization process of the firm—A model of knowledge development and increasing foreign market commitments. Journal of International Business Studies, 8(1), 23–32.

11. Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. Free Press.

From Indore's Traditional Fariyali Namkeen to Global Markets: An Exploratory Case-cum-Research Study of Product Differentiation, MSME Export Competitiveness, and International Market Development

The paper is structured for further development into a management, economics, international marketing, or MSME export research publication. The next essential step for a stronger empirical paper is to obtain actual company data and conduct the proposed overseas consumer survey.

 

Wealth Enters, Craft Exits: A Case Study of Efficiency Substitution and Display Consumption in Diwali Festivities

Abstract: Diwali, one of India's most important festivals, has traditionally centred on home-made sweets, hand-shaped clay lamps (diyas), clay toys, and household decoration. With the rapid expansion of the kitchen appliance market and the intensifying time poverty of urban middle-class households, festive preparation is shifting from "made by hand" to "bought ready-made," and from "process experience" to "result display." Drawing on Indian kitchen appliance market data, festive gifting industry trends, and field records of clay artisans, this paper analyses the dual impact of this shift on ritual meaning, intergenerational transmission, and the livelihoods of clay craft workers. The study finds that efficiency substitution has not dissolved the festival itself, but has reshaped what "wealth entering" means: wealth enters the household as commodities, while craft skills and family collaboration are pushed out of ritual space. Diwali increasingly becomes a stage for displaying economic capacity and time-management capacity.

Keywords: Diwali; kitchen appliances; commodification of ritual; clay crafts; display consumption

1. Introduction

The core ritual logic of Diwali has always been tightly linked to "wealth." The first day, Dhanteras, is the day of wealth worship; the third day, Lakshmi Puja, welcomes the goddess of prosperity into the home. Traditionally, households "invited" auspiciousness and prosperity into their living space by thoroughly cleaning the house, hand-making sweets (mithai), shaping clay lamps and clay toys, and drawing rangoli. This process was itself the ritual: the investment of time, family collaboration, and manual skill together constituted the sacredness of the festival.

In recent years, however, the festive preparation patterns of urban Indian households have changed markedly. On one hand, the spread of small kitchen appliances has replaced traditionally time-consuming steps (kneading, grinding, frying) with machines; on the other, the time scarcity of dual-income households has made "outsourcing" the rational choice. At the same time, traditional handicrafts such as clay lamps and clay toys still circulate, but they enter the home more as "purchased commodities" than as "made works." This paper asks: when wealth enters the festival in the form of "everything can be bought," what happens to ritual practice itself? Who benefits from this change, and who does not?

2. Efficiency Substitution: Kitchen Appliances and the De-skilling of Sweet-Making

Diwali sweet-making was once the centre of family activity in the days before the festival. Traditionally, family members completed the entire process together, from preparing ingredients to decorating the finished sweets, and this process carried functions of intergenerational teaching and emotional bonding. But this model depended heavily on two scarce resources: time and labour.

Data from the Indian kitchen appliance market provides a macroeconomic footnote to this shift. The Indian kitchen appliance market was valued at USD 11.41 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand at a CAGR of 7.12% between 2026 and 2031, with small appliances (food processors, mixers, air fryers, etc.) the fastest-growing segment, forecast at a CAGR of 8.88%. The spread of small appliances directly lowered the skill threshold and physical effort of sweet-making, but it also degraded "making" itself from a family ritual into machine operation.

More noteworthy is the thoroughness of the "substitution." As early as 2006, The Hindu reported that the spread of nuclear and dual-income households had made "ordering sweets from outside much easier than making them at home" a common choice for the urban middle class. Nearly two decades later, this trend has moved from "choice" to "norm." Trends in the 2025 corporate gifting market further confirm this: the mainstream of Diwali sweet gift boxes has shifted toward premium, health-oriented, and branded products, while the share of traditional home-made sweets in gift exchange continues to shrink. Wealth has indeed "entered"—purchasing power has replaced manual labour—but the cost is the disappearance of family interaction and skill transmission from the making process.

3. The Paradox of Clay: Handicrafts as Commodities, Not Works

The significance of clay lamps and clay toys in traditional Diwali goes far beyond decoration. Take the clay fort (Shivaji killas) tradition in Maharashtra: families (especially children and elders working together) build miniature forts from clay, furnished with clay soldiers, animals, and deities—a practice carrying historical memory and intergenerational connection. A 2010 Times of India report recorded the Kumbharwada area of Pune selling more than 200 kinds of clay lamps and over 30 kinds of clay forts during the festival, with buyers assembling and decorating the forts together with elders and grandchildren.

Yet the survival of this tradition faces a structural contradiction. On the supply side, clay artisans face rising raw material costs and competition from cheap substitutes (plaster of Paris, plastic). As early as 2010, artisans in Kumbharwada noted that plaster of Paris was gradually replacing traditional red clay because it "saves time." On the demand side, urban households' motivation for buying clay lamps and toys has shifted from "participating in making" to "completing decoration." Clay products are absorbed into the "festive shopping list," listed alongside sweet gift boxes and electronics, their value determined by appearance and price rather than the meaning conferred by the making process.

This constitutes a paradox: clay products are still physically "present," but their function as a carrier of craft transmission is exiting. The case of the Soniya and Sharda sisters (clay artists in Delhi) is even more revealing: they have shifted from hand-shaping to moulds (saanchas) to increase output, because "neither time nor savings allow" continued purely handmade production. Wealth enters the artisan's workshop in the form of orders, but at the price of standardisation and de-individualisation.

4. Display Consumption and the Ritualisation of "Busyness"

The deeper driver of these changes is the migration of the urban middle class's festive logic from "process-oriented" to "result-oriented." This migration closely matches Veblenian "display consumption" logic: preparation time is compressed, but the visible presentation of the festival (home decoration, gift tier, social-media festive imagery) is reinforced.

The evolution of the corporate gifting market offers clear evidence. 2025 Diwali corporate gifting trends show an average gift box price of about INR 1,500, with premium orders exceeding INR 10,000, and demand concentrated on labels such as "unique," "sustainable," and "healthy." The criteria for choosing gifts shift from "intention" to "perceived brand value." At the individual level, gift exchange shows a similar trend: crystalware, home goods, and practical items replace traditional sweets as preferred festive gifts.

The cost of this logic is borne by two groups. Within the family, festive "busyness" shifts from the bustle of making to the management anxiety of purchasing and social scheduling, and collaborative scenes of intergenerational festive preparation decline sharply. On the artisan side, although clay product sales remain considerable during the festival, bargaining power and profit distribution continue to tilt toward middlemen and brands. A pair of medium-sized deity figures by Delhi clay artists sells for only INR 250–500, in stark contrast to urban households' spending on gifts and decoration.

5. Discussion: After Wealth Enters

"Diwali is coming, wealth enter"—this formulation accurately captures the ritual link between festival and wealth. The question is not whether wealth should enter the festival, but how it enters, what it replaces, and what it leaves behind.

On the positive side, kitchen appliances and ready-made sweets have indeed liberated urban women from heavy festive labour, and the circulation of clay products as commodities provides some artisans with income. But from the perspective of ritual anthropology, one of Diwali's core functions—strengthening family bonds and intergenerational transmission through shared labour—is being eroded by the logic of efficiency. When clay lamps change from "shaped with my child" to "bought online," and sweets from "mother's taste" to "brand gift box," the festive experience is reduced to receiving and displaying rather than participating and creating.

The situation of clay artisans deserves particular attention. They carry a handicraft tradition of centuries, yet under market pressure favouring "cheap, fast, attractive," they are forced into moulds, plaster, and standardised production. Wealth has indeed "entered," but it flows to brands, platforms, and logistics—not to the bearers of the craft.

6. Conclusion

The transformation of Diwali festivities is not a simple narrative of "tradition declining." A more accurate description is: the centre of gravity of ritual has shifted from the production side to the consumption side, from inside the family to the market, from time investment to monetary expenditure. Kitchen appliances and ready-made gift boxes make festive preparation efficient, but they also make the festive experience shallow. Clay lamps and clay toys still light up the festival nights, but the warmth of hands on them is fading.

The irreversibility of this change deserves honest acknowledgement. Any call to "restore" traditional making practices that ignores the real time constraints of urban households will be difficult to implement. A more constructive direction may be to preserve space for "minimal participation" while acknowledging the rationality of efficiency substitution—for example, buying unpainted clay blanks rather than finished lamps, so the family at least completes the painting and assembly; or keeping one home-made sweet variety alongside purchased ones, so the festival does not become entirely an exercise in unboxing and plating. Wealth may enter, but it should not buy out the process of the festival along with everything else.

References

1.      Canton Public Library. "Diwali: The Festival of Lights." 2026.

2.      The Times of India. "Shivaji killas express pure reverence." 2010.

3.      Mid-day. "Moulding the gods." 2010.

4.      Research and Markets. "India Kitchen Appliances - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)." 2026.

5.      The Hindu. "Changing spirit of Diwali." 2006.

6.      Business Standard. "Sweet, sleek, sustainable: India Inc's Diwali gifts get thoughtful." 2025.

7.      ShareAmerica. "Diwali brings 'a sense of togetherness'." 2024.

8.      The Indian Express. "The festive economy: Clay, craft, and women's livelihoods." 2026.

9.      Ken Research. "India Kitchen Appliances Market Share, Companies & Trends Report 2025-2031." 2026.

 

“Unemployment, Foodgrain Purchasing Power and India's Future Food Security: An Economic Assessment of 2027–2030 with Special Reference to Household Affordability, Agricultural Supply and Distribution.”

 

“Unemployment, Foodgrain Purchasing Power and India's Future Food Security: An Economic Assessment of 2027–2030 with Special Reference to Household Affordability, Agricultural Supply and Distribution.”

Abstract

This case-cum-research paper examines food-grain availability, household purchasing power, procurement policy and affordability in India, using 2023-24 household data and production, stock and macroeconomic information available in 2026. India entered 2026 with record or near-record rice and wheat production and unusually comfortable public stocks. Nevertheless, aggregate availability does not guarantee household-level food security. Rural households continue to devote a large part of their expenditure to food, and many households cannot afford a nutritionally balanced diet even when staple grains are subsidised.

The paper uses a secondary-data case-study method and develops three scenarios for 2027. The baseline scenario expects comfortable grain availability, moderate price increases and a small improvement in real purchasing power. The optimistic scenario combines favourable weather, efficient procurement and income growth. The adverse scenario assumes weather-related production losses and elevated food inflation. The central finding is that India's staple-grain security is stronger than its nutritional purchasing power. Policy must therefore move beyond maintaining cereal stocks toward protecting real incomes, controlling distribution costs and improving access to pulses and other nutritious foods.

Keywords: food grains, purchasing power, procurement, food inflation, MSP, PDS, household consumption, India, 2027 forecast

1. Introduction

Food security has four connected dimensions: availability, access, utilisation and stability. India may produce enough grain nationally while some households remain unable to purchase an adequate and diverse diet. This distinction is important because production and public stocks measure physical availability, whereas wages, employment, prices and social transfers determine effective demand.

In this study, food-grain purchasing power means a household's ability to acquire cereals, pulses and related food requirements from its disposable income and public entitlements. A simple purchasing-power indicator can be expressed as:

FGPPt=Yt+TtPfg,tFGPP_t = \frac{Y_t + T_t}{P_{fg,t}}FGPPt​=Pfg,t​Yt​+Tt​​

where:

YtY_tYt​ is disposable money income;

TtT_tTt​ is the monetary value of food transfers and subsidies; and

Pfg,tP_{fg,t}Pfg,t​ is the retail food-grain price index.

Purchasing power improves when income and transfers rise faster than grain prices. It deteriorates when retail food inflation exceeds income growth, even if national output remains adequate.

The paper addresses the following questions:

What is the current food-grain production, stock and procurement situation?

How strong is household purchasing power for food and grain?

How do the Minimum Support Price system and public distribution affect producers and consumers?

What is the most plausible outlook for 2027?

Which policies can improve both farm incentives and consumer affordability?

2. Objectives and Hypotheses

The study has four principal objectives:

To evaluate India's current grain-supply position.

To examine rural and urban food-purchasing capacity.

To analyse procurement and distribution as a producer-consumer policy system.

To develop baseline, optimistic and adverse forecasts for 2027.

The analysis tests three propositions:

H1: Growth in real household income improves food-grain purchasing power.

H2: Food inflation reduces purchasing power disproportionately among poorer and rural households because food represents a larger share of their expenditure.

H3: Procurement, buffer stocks and subsidised distribution reduce the transmission of production shocks to vulnerable consumers, although their protection is stronger for cereals than for diet quality.

3. Research Methodology

This is a descriptive and analytical case study of India. It uses secondary information from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Reserve Bank of India, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and recent research based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey.

The analytical framework combines:

Supply analysis: production, procurement, stocks and weather risk.

Demand analysis: monthly per-capita consumption expenditure and food-budget shares.

Affordability analysis: comparison of income or expenditure growth with food inflation.

Institutional analysis: MSP procurement, buffer stocking, NFSA/PDS distribution and market intervention.

Scenario forecasting: conditional projections rather than point predictions.

The latest comprehensive household expenditure data relate to 2023-24, whereas production and macroeconomic indicators extend into 2026. Therefore, the study does not claim to measure every household's actual position in 2026. Its 2027 estimates are research scenarios, not official forecasts.

4. Current Food-Grain Scenario

4.1 Production

The 2025-26 second advance estimates placed kharif and rabi food-grain output at 174.144 million tonnes and 174.513 million tonnes, respectively. Wheat production was estimated at a record 120.21 million tonnes, compared with 117.945 million tonnes in the preceding year. Estimated kharif rice production reached 123.928 million tonnes, while rabi rice excluding the summer crop was estimated at 16.72 million tonnes. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare

These figures indicate a strong domestic supply base entering the 2026-27 marketing period. They also show that India remains heavily dependent on rice and wheat for both production policy and public distribution.

4.2 Stocks and supply protection

Public stocks provide significant protection against short-term production and price shocks. On 16 March 2026, rice stocks stood at 74.2 million tonnes, approximately 9.7 times the applicable buffer norm, while wheat stocks were 22.9 million tonnes, about 1.7 times the norm. Reserve Bank of India

The stock position is therefore asymmetric. Rice provides a very large policy cushion, but wheat has a narrower margin. This means that open-market releases and export decisions can be used to stabilise rice prices relatively freely, while wheat management requires greater caution.

4.3 Weather and production risk

The main risk is climatic rather than an immediate physical shortage. Weak 2026 monsoon conditions affected kharif sowing and yield prospects, particularly for rice and maize. One external assessment reduced its 2026-27 rice forecast to 147 million tonnes and maize to 50 million tonnes, while concluding that carryover stocks should keep total domestic supplies adequate. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Consequently, the relevant 2027 question is not simply whether India will have enough grain. It is whether local crop losses, transport costs and retail-market pressures will raise prices faster than household incomes.

5. Purchasing-Power Assessment

5.1 Household expenditure pattern

The 2023-24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey estimated average monthly per-capita consumption expenditure at Rs. 4,122 in rural India and Rs. 6,996 in urban India, excluding the imputed value of free welfare items. Average food expenditure was Rs. 1,939 in rural areas and Rs. 2,776 in urban areas. Food represented 47.04% of rural expenditure and 39.68% of urban expenditure. MoSPI Household Consumption Expenditure Survey

Indicator, 2023-24	Rural India	Urban India
Average MPCE	Rs. 4,122	Rs. 6,996
Average food expenditure	Rs. 1,939	Rs. 2,776
Food share in MPCE	47.04%	39.68%
MPCE including imputed free items	Rs. 4,247	Rs. 7,078

The larger rural food share has an important implication: the same percentage increase in food prices causes a greater loss of discretionary purchasing power in rural households. Poor households within both sectors face an even heavier burden than these averages indicate.

5.2 Cereals versus adequate nutrition

Cereal purchasing power has improved through free or subsidised distribution and the long-term decline in cereals' share of household budgets. However, low cereal expenditure is not sufficient evidence of nutritional security. It can reflect subsidised access, changing preferences or reduced consumption.

A 2026 analysis using HCES 2023-24 data estimated the daily cost of a healthy vegetarian diet at Rs. 63.6 per consumer unit and a healthy non-vegetarian diet at Rs. 73.1. It found that 56.6% of the rural population and 31.2% of the urban population would need to increase current food expenditure to meet the relevant healthy-diet cost. Under a narrower nutritional-adequacy threshold, 32.6% of rural and 8.3% of urban residents were unable to afford an adequate diet. Azim Premji University

This produces the central paradox:

India can hold abundant cereal stocks while a significant proportion of households still lack the purchasing power required for a balanced diet.

5.3 Illustrative real purchasing-power calculation

If nominal household purchasing resources rise by 7% and relevant food-grain prices rise by 4.5%, approximate real purchasing-power growth is:

1.071.045−1=2.39%

If nominal resources increase by only 5% while food-grain prices rise by 7%, purchasing power changes by:

1.051.07−1=−1.87%\

The result demonstrates why production growth alone cannot forecast consumer welfare. The decisive variable is the difference between household income growth and the prices actually paid by consumers.

6. Procurement as a Dual-Sided Case

The procurement system connects two distinct forms of purchasing power.

6.1 Producer purchasing power

Minimum Support Price procurement gives participating farmers a price floor, reduces distress sales and converts output into farm income. Higher and more predictable farm income supports rural consumption and investment. Procurement can therefore strengthen the purchasing power of surplus-producing farm households.

Its benefits, however, are concentrated in crops and regions with effective purchasing operations. Farmers located far from procurement centres, small marketable-surplus holders and growers of pulses or coarse grains may receive less protection than major rice and wheat producers.

6.2 Consumer purchasing power

Procured grain finances public distribution. For eligible households, free or subsidised grain acts like an in-kind income transfer. Its value is:

Tgrain=Q(Pm−Pi)T_{grain}

where QQQ is the entitlement quantity, PmP_mPm​ is the market price and PiP_iPi​ is the issue price. As market prices increase, the implicit protection offered by a fixed or zero issue price becomes more valuable.

6.3 Institutional tension

The same policy system can create competing pressures:

A higher MSP may support farm incomes but raise procurement and carrying costs.

Excessive rice and wheat procurement can discourage diversification.

Very large stocks generate storage and fiscal costs.

Weak local procurement can leave some farmers exposed even while national stocks are high.

Cereal transfers protect calorie access but do not automatically make pulses, vegetables, milk or protein foods affordable.

The policy objective should therefore be efficient security, not maximum procurement regardless of cost.

7. 2027 Forecast

7.1 Forecasting assumptions

The baseline forecast uses the following observable anchors:

India enters the period with strong wheat and rice availability.

Rice stocks provide substantial shock absorption.

Weak monsoon or El Niño effects remain a production risk.

The RBI's June 2026 professional forecasters expected real GDP growth of 6.9%, private consumption growth of 7.0% and headline CPI inflation of 4.5% in 2027-28. Reserve Bank of India

Procurement, PDS and possible open-market releases are assumed to continue.

Retail prices may rise faster than farm-gate prices where logistics or market margins are inefficient.

7.2 Scenario table

Variable	Optimistic 2027	Baseline 2027	Adverse 2027
Food-grain output change	+3% to +5%	-1% to +2%	-4% to -7%
Cereal/food-grain retail inflation	2% to 4%	4% to 6%	7% to 10%
Nominal household-resource growth	8% to 10%	6% to 8%	3% to 6%
Real grain purchasing-power change	+4% to +7%	0% to +3%	-3% to -6%
Public-stock position	Very comfortable	Comfortable	Adequate but declining
Main condition	Normal weather and efficient releases	Mixed weather, active management	Crop shock and high logistics costs

These ranges are analytical projections derived from the stated assumptions. They should not be treated as official estimates.

7.3 Baseline interpretation

The most plausible result is stable to moderately improving grain purchasing power. Production may be broadly flat or slightly higher, while buffer stocks prevent a national shortage. With nominal income or expenditure growth around 6%-8% and relevant grain inflation around 4%-6%, real purchasing power could improve by up to approximately 3%.

The improvement will be uneven. Formal salaried households and beneficiaries receiving reliable grain entitlements will be more protected. Landless labourers, informal workers, migrants and households facing irregular PDS access will remain vulnerable.

7.4 Optimistic interpretation

Normal weather, timely procurement, low logistics costs and strong rural employment could keep cereal inflation below income growth. In this case, households would have more room to shift spending from staple cereals toward pulses and other nutritious products. The gain would represent an improvement in diet quality rather than merely an increase in cereal quantity.

7.5 Adverse interpretation

A weather shock affecting rice, maize or pulses could combine with fuel, transport or global commodity pressures. Grain inflation of 7%-10% would then exceed income growth for many informal-sector households. Public stocks could prevent a severe national cereal deficit, but consumers might substitute toward cheaper, less diverse diets. Nutritional affordability would deteriorate before outright cereal availability became critical.

8. Major Findings

The evidence supports six findings:

National availability is presently strong. Record wheat output, high rice production and large stocks reduce the probability of a broad cereal shortage.

Purchasing power remains unequal. Rural households allocate a much larger share of their budgets to food and are consequently more sensitive to inflation.

Cereal access is stronger than nutritional access. Public distribution reduces the cost of staples, but a healthy diet remains unaffordable for many households.

Stocks reduce volatility but do not eliminate retail inflation. Transport, market margins and local supply interruptions can raise prices despite adequate national stocks.

Procurement has distributional gaps. It supports participating farmers but is uneven across regions, farm sizes and crops.

The 2027 baseline is cautiously favourable. Grain supply should remain adequate, but real purchasing-power gains are likely to be modest and vulnerable to weather shocks.

9. Policy Recommendations

9.1 Protect real rather than merely nominal income

Rural wage programmes, pensions and cash benefits should be periodically reviewed against food inflation. A nominal increase below the food-inflation rate represents a real cut for vulnerable households.

9.2 Use buffer stocks predictably

Open-market releases should follow transparent price and stock triggers. Early, rules-based intervention can reduce speculative pressure without undermining procurement incentives.

9.3 Expand procurement beyond rice and wheat

Procurement and assured marketing for pulses, millets and suitable coarse grains should be strengthened in agro-climatically appropriate regions. This would diversify production, reduce water stress and improve the nutritional content of food-security programmes.

9.4 Reduce the farm-retail price gap

Investment is needed in storage, rural roads, rail movement, warehouses, market information and digital stock monitoring. Lower post-harvest and distribution costs can improve farmer realisation while reducing consumer prices.

9.5 Improve portability and coverage

Portable entitlements and accurate beneficiary records are essential for migrants and informal workers. Exclusion from distribution can rapidly convert a manageable food-price increase into household food insecurity.

9.6 Move from cereal security to diet security

Cereal entitlements should remain the foundation, but policies should progressively support access to pulses and locally appropriate nutritious foods. The objective should be affordability of a balanced food basket, not only minimum calories.

9.7 Establish a purchasing-power dashboard

A national monitoring system should combine:

rural and urban wage growth;

cereal and pulse retail prices;

market arrivals and procurement;

PDS offtake and delivery failures;

district-level stock positions;

household food-budget shares; and

diet-cost indicators.

This would identify stress earlier than annual production totals alone.

10. Limitations

The paper has four limitations. First, the household survey and current supply indicators refer to different periods. Second, national averages conceal substantial state, income, caste, gender and occupational differences. Third, household consumption expenditure is a welfare proxy rather than a direct income measure. Fourth, the 2027 scenarios are conditional on weather, policy and macroeconomic assumptions and should be updated when final crop estimates and newer household data become available.

11. Conclusion

India's 2027 food-grain outlook is likely to be supply-secure but affordability-sensitive. Strong production and large public stocks substantially reduce the risk of a nationwide cereal shortage. Procurement and public distribution also protect both participating farmers and eligible consumers.

The remaining problem is the gap between grain availability and household capability. Rural food-budget shares remain high, and a substantial section of the population cannot afford a nutritionally balanced diet. Under the baseline forecast, food-grain purchasing power should remain stable or improve modestly in 2027. However, weak weather, food inflation or slow wage growth could reverse that outcome, especially for informal and low-income households.

Accordingly, the appropriate policy test is not simply how many tonnes India produces or procures. It is whether real incomes and public entitlements enable households to obtain adequate, stable and nutritionally diverse food throughout the year.

 The important research argument is that India may have sufficient foodgrain production at the national level, but unemployed and underemployed households may still face food insecurity because they lack sufficient income to purchase food.

The central relationship is:

Unemployment reduces household income.

Reduced income weakens foodgrain purchasing power.

Inflation increases the proportion of income spent on essential food.

Households may reduce the quantity or quality of food consumed.

Agricultural labour shortages, weak farm investment and climate shocks can also affect future foodgrain production.

A combination of supply disruption and reduced purchasing power can create a serious food-security crisis.

An important distinction: unemployment does not automatically cause a national foodgrain shortage. It primarily creates an affordability and access problem. A physical shortage requires additional supply-side factors.

Appendix A: Conceptual relationship between unemployment and foodgrain purchasing power

Economic relationship model

Unemployment and underemployment

Loss of wages, salary and regular income

Decline in household disposable income

Decline in foodgrain purchasing power

Reduced food consumption and nutritional quality

Greater household food insecurity

Additional supply-side pathway

Agricultural labour shortages, higher input costs, climate variability and lower farm investment can reduce production or increase prices, creating physical or market-level supply risks.

A1. Research variables

Variable	Measurement
Unemployment status	Employed, unemployed, underemployed
Monthly household income	Rupees per month
Foodgrain expenditure	Rupees per month
Foodgrain price	Rupees per kg
Foodgrain purchasing power	Quantity affordable from available income
Food consumption	Kg per person per month
Food insecurity	Reduced meals, quantity or quality
Government assistance	NFSA/PDS foodgrain received

A2. Proposed mathematical relationship

Foodgrain purchasing power can be expressed as:

\[ FPP=\frac{I_f}{P_g} \]

Where:

\(FPP\) = foodgrain purchasing power in kilograms.

\(I_f\) = income allocated to foodgrain purchases.

\(P_g\) = average foodgrain price per kilogram.

The relationship between unemployment and purchasing power can be examined using:

\[ FPP=f(E,I,P_g,S) \]

Where \(E\) represents employment status, \(I\) household income and \(S\) food subsidy or public distribution support.

Research proposition: Households experiencing unemployment are likely to have lower market purchasing power than otherwise comparable employed households, although savings, other household earners and PDS assistance can reduce this difference.

Appendix B: India – employment and foodgrain evidence

The following official evidence provides a foundation for the 2027 analysis.

Indicator	Published evidence	Research relevance
Youth unemployment	9.9% among persons aged 15–29 in 2025	Employment vulnerability
Educated unemployment	6.5% among persons aged 15+ with secondary and above education in 2025	Income-generation challenges
Foodgrain production	376.56 million tonnes, third advance estimate for 2025–26	National production capacity
Wheat stocks	513 LMT on 28 May 2026	Government buffer capacity
Rice stocks	397 LMT on 28 May 2026	Public food-security capacity

Sources: MoSPI's PLFS Annual Report 2025 and Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and Department of Food and Public Distribution releases.

Ministry of Stats & Program Implementation+3

Interpretation: These figures demonstrate why production and purchasing power must be studied separately. Record production and comfortable public stocks can coexist with household-level food insecurity.

Appendix C: Projected relationship for 2027–2030

The following is a proposed research scenario framework, not an official government forecast or a measured statistical relationship.

Scenario	Employment conditions	Foodgrain prices	Household purchasing power	Food security
Optimistic	Employment improves	Stable or moderate increase	Improves	Relatively secure
Baseline	Partial employment recovery	Moderate inflation	Mixed	Unequal affordability
Adverse	Unemployment increases	High food inflation	Declines	Higher food insecurity

C1. Illustrative numerical sensitivity analysis

Assume a household has ₹3,000 available every month for purchasing foodgrains.

Average price per kg	Affordable quantity
₹30	100 kg
₹33	90.91 kg
₹36	83.33 kg
₹40	75 kg
₹45	66.67 kg

Foodgrain purchasing power under different prices

Illustrative quantity affordable with a fixed monthly foodgrain budget of ₹3,000; not observed market data.

60 kg75 kg90 kg105 kg₹30/kg₹33/kg₹36/kg₹40/kg₹45/kg

This illustrates that a 50% increase in foodgrain prices, without an increase in the household's purchasing budget, reduces its affordable quantity by one-third.

Appendix D: How unemployment can contribute to future foodgrain shortages

This appendix is particularly important because it expands the paper beyond household purchasing power and examines the agricultural economy.

Channel	Relationship with unemployment	Possible future consequence
Agricultural labour	Rural workers migrate or leave agriculture	Seasonal labour shortages
Farmer income	Lower agricultural profitability	Reduced investment in seeds and technology
Agricultural credit	Income uncertainty affects repayment capacity	Lower access to institutional credit
Land utilisation	Labour and financial constraints	Reduced cultivation or delayed sowing
Rural demand	Unemployment reduces purchasing capacity	Lower demand for agricultural products
Food distribution	Unemployed families depend more on subsidised food	Greater pressure on public distribution systems
Climate shocks	Production losses affect both farmers and agricultural workers	Higher prices and local shortages

Important research distinction: Unemployment can simultaneously reduce food demand among affected households and increase dependence on subsidised distribution. It does not necessarily reduce aggregate food demand or production. The actual effect must be measured.

D1. Five potential causes of foodgrain shortages by 2030

Climate change: Irregular monsoons, droughts, floods and extreme temperatures.

Agricultural input costs: Rising fertiliser, diesel, electricity, irrigation and labour expenses.

Agricultural workforce changes: Migration, ageing farm workers and declining availability of seasonal labour.

Storage and distribution losses: Inadequate warehouses, transportation and cold-chain infrastructure.

Policy and market disruptions: Procurement imbalances, export restrictions, regional supply disruptions and inadequate market coordination.

These are potential risks, not predictions that India will necessarily experience a foodgrain shortage.

Appendix E: Proposed empirical survey for 2027

To make this paper suitable for an empirical journal, I recommend collecting primary data from unemployed, employed and underemployed households.

Suggested sample size: 500 households

Respondent category	Sample
Unemployed households	125
Regular salaried households	125
Self-employed households	100
Agricultural labour households	75
Small and marginal farmer households	75
Total	500

Suggested geographical coverage: Indore, Dewas, Ujjain, Dhar and rural Madhya Pradesh.

E1. Questionnaire for household respondents

What is your current employment status?

What is your monthly household income?

How many family members depend on this income?

What is your monthly expenditure on wheat, rice and other cereals?

Have foodgrain prices increased your household expenditure?

Have you reduced foodgrain consumption because of financial difficulties?

Do you receive foodgrains through the Public Distribution System?

Does your household have sufficient foodgrain stocks for one month?

Has unemployment affected your ability to purchase pulses, cereals and other essential food?

What do you expect will happen to foodgrain affordability by 2027–2030?

E2. Proposed statistical tests

Hypothesis	Statistical technique
Unemployment and foodgrain purchasing power are related	Chi-square test
Average foodgrain expenditure differs by employment status	ANOVA
Household income predicts purchasing power	Multiple regression
Food inflation affects foodgrain consumption	Regression analysis
PDS assistance reduces affordability differences	Comparative analysis
Employment, income and food security form a connected relationship	Structural Equation Modelling (SEM)

The following regression model can be tested using actual survey data:

\[ FPP_i=\beta_0+\beta_1E_i+\beta_2I_i+ \beta_3P_i+\beta_4PDS_i+\epsilon_i \]

Here, \(FPP_i\) is purchasing power, \(E_i\) employment status, \(I_i\) household income, \(P_i\) foodgrain prices and \(PDS_i\) public distribution support.

Do not report regression coefficients, significance levels, Cronbach's alpha or correlation values until the actual survey has been completed.

Appendix F: Government policy recommendations

Employment and food security integration: Link rural employment programmes with local agricultural infrastructure and food-security planning.

Employment-sensitive food assistance: Identify households experiencing sudden income loss and facilitate access to eligible food assistance.

Agricultural labour development: Strengthen rural skill development, mechanisation and seasonal employment.

Foodgrain price monitoring: Develop district-level monitoring of wheat, rice, maize, pulses and other essential food items.

Strategic foodgrain reserves: Maintain adequate operational and strategic stocks according to buffer norms.

Storage infrastructure: Expand scientific warehouses, silos and decentralised procurement facilities.

Farmer income protection: Improve access to agricultural credit, crop insurance, irrigation and market information.

Unemployment and food insecurity dashboard: Integrate employment, household income, foodgrain prices, PDS coverage and district-level food availability.

F1. Suggested policy dashboard

Indicator	Monitoring frequency
Unemployment rate	Monthly/quarterly
Household income	Quarterly
Wheat and rice retail prices	Weekly
Foodgrain stocks	Monthly
PDS distribution	Monthly
Agricultural labour availability	Seasonal
Crop production estimates	Seasonal
Household food insecurity	Quarterly

Appendix G: Research hypotheses

The following hypotheses can be formally included in the paper:

H1: There is a significant relationship between unemployment and household foodgrain purchasing power.

H2: Households with irregular income experience greater difficulty in managing foodgrain expenditure.

H3: Foodgrain inflation negatively affects the quantity of foodgrains affordable to low-income households.

H4: Public Distribution System assistance reduces the adverse effect of unemployment on household food security.

H5: Agricultural labour availability, input costs and climate conditions significantly influence future foodgrain supply.

H6: Employment generation and agricultural productivity improvements jointly strengthen long-term food security.

References

These references can be incorporated into the bibliography of your existing paper.

1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2008). An introduction to the basic concepts of food security. FAO. Read publication.

2. Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. (2026). Third advance estimates of production of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops for 2025–26. Official agricultural statistics.

3. Government of India, Ministry of Finance. (2026). Economic Survey 2025–26. Read Economic Survey.

4. Government of India, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2026). Annual report, Periodic Labour Force Survey 2025. Read PLFS report.

5. Government of India, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. (n.d.). Allocation of foodgrains and foodgrain stocking norms. Official foodgrain statistics.

6. Government of India, Press Information Bureau. (2026, May 28). Foodgrain stock position and food security preparedness. Read government release.

7. World Bank. (2023). What is food security? Read explanation.

8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (n.d.). Food security concepts and measurement. Read research material.

Final proposed research conclusion

The central argument of this research is that India's future food security cannot be evaluated exclusively through agricultural production figures. Employment opportunities, household income, foodgrain prices and the purchasing capacity of vulnerable populations must also be considered.

India's foodgrain production may remain adequate at the national level, but persistent unemployment, underemployment and food inflation could increase household food insecurity during 2027–2030. Conversely, climate-related production losses, agricultural labour constraints and distribution inefficiencies could create regional physical shortages.

Therefore, food security requires an integrated policy combining employment generation, agricultural productivity, affordable foodgrain prices, efficient public procurement, adequate buffer stocks and targeted food distribution.