Services Sector Performance and GDP Nowcasting in India: An Empirical Analysis Using High-Frequency Indicators (FY25–FY26) Abstract The services sector remains the primary stabilising force in India’s Gross Value Added (GVA), demonstrating robust growth momentum during FY26. This study analyses sectoral performance trends using national accounts data and high-frequency indicators (HFIs), applying econometric techniques such as Dynamic Factor Models (DFM), correlation analysis, trend comparison, and growth decomposition. The services sector exhibited accelerated growth of 9.1% in FY26 compared to 7.2% in FY25, with strong domestic demand and steady exports driving expansion. Using nowcasting methodology, the study evaluates real-time GDP estimation and validates momentum using PMI services, cargo movement, and freight traffic indicators. Findings confirm that services-led expansion remains resilient, although transport-related segments face short-term cost and geopolitical pre...
Trends in the Domestic Economy: An Analytical Study of India’s Growth Momentum Based on FY26 First Advance Estimates
Trends in the Domestic Economy: An Analytical Study of India’s Growth Momentum Based on FY26 First Advance Estimates Abstract The domestic economy of India continues to demonstrate resilience and sustained growth despite global economic volatility. The First Advance Estimates (FAE) for FY26 released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation project real GDP growth at 7.4% and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3%, reaffirming the country’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies. This research paper analyses sectoral performance, demand and supply dynamics, structural drivers, policy implications, and future outlook based on the FY26 estimates. The study finds that domestic demand, manufacturing expansion, and services sector strength remain primary drivers of growth, while capital formation and financial services are emerging as key contributors to economic resilience. Keywords Domestic Economy; GDP Growth; Gross Value Added (GVA); First Adva...