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Inflation in India: 1920-30 vs. Current Scenario (2025-26) A Case-cum-Research Paper with Historical Measurement and Comparative Analysis

  Inflation in India: 1920-30 vs. Current Scenario (2025-26) A Case-cum-Research Paper with Historical Measurement and Comparative Analysis   Abstract India’s inflation experience reflects two contrasting economic eras: colonial volatility during 1920-30 and modern macroeconomic stability in 2025-26. The earlier period witnessed post-World War I inflation followed by severe deflation during the Great Depression, resulting in rural distress and stagnation. In contrast, the contemporary period is characterized by low and stable inflation supported by monetary policy tools, diversified economic structure, and institutional frameworks. This study examines inflation trends, measurement methods, policy responses, economic impacts, and lessons for managing low inflation. It also analyses how inflation was calculated during the colonial era and compares it with modern Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology.   Keywords Inflation India, Colonial Economy, CPI Calculati...

Impact of the 1947 Partition on Textile Mills: A Case-cum-Research Study of Undivided India’s Textile Industry

  Impact of the 1947 Partition on Textile Mills: A Case-cum-Research Study of Undivided India’s Textile Industry




Abstract

The partition of India in 1947 created one of the most significant economic disruptions in South Asian industrial history. The textile industry—then the backbone of industrial production—was deeply affected due to the geographic separation of cotton-growing regions and industrial mills. While India inherited most spinning and weaving factories, Pakistan received a large portion of raw cotton-producing land but very few mills. This study analyzes structural, operational, financial, and trade impacts of partition on textile mills through historical data, industrial trends, and case examples such as Bombay Spinning & Weaving Company and Sutlej Cotton Mills (Okara). The research highlights how partition reshaped industrial strategies, trade routes, employment, and long-term industrial growth in both countries.

Key words

Textile Industry South Asia | India–Pakistan Textile Sector | Partition Economic Impact 1947 | Textile Export Trends | Cotton Supply Chain | Technical Textiles | Sustainable Textile Production | Global Apparel Markets | Textile Industrial Policy | Value-Added Textile Exports

1. Introduction

Before independence, the textile industry was the most modern industrial sector in British India. It represented:

·         Early mechanization,

·         Indigenous entrepreneurship,

·         Global export integration.

Major centers included:

·         Bombay (Mumbai) – spinning and exports

·         Ahmedabad – weaving and composite mills

·         Kanpur – military and industrial textiles

·         Punjab & Sindh – cotton production and ginning.

Partition abruptly divided industrial assets, labor markets, and raw material supply chains.

 

2. Pre-Partition Structure of Textile Industry

2.1 Industrial Distribution

·         Approx. 423 cotton textile mills existed in undivided India.

·         Around 409 mills remained in India after partition.

·         Pakistan inherited:

o    Vast cotton-growing lands (Punjab & Sindh),

o    Very limited mechanized mills (around 3 major mills initially).

2.2 Production Ecosystem

Segment

India Region

Pakistan Region

Spinning & weaving mills

Bombay, Ahmedabad, Kanpur

Limited presence

Cotton cultivation

Central & Western India

Punjab, Sindh

Ginning factories

Mixed

Majority in Punjab/Sindh

Export ports

Bombay, Calcutta

Karachi

 

3. Partition Shock: Structural Disruption

Partition created four major shocks:

3.1 Raw Material Supply Crisis

·         India lost access to ~40% cotton-growing land.

·         Pakistan lacked industrial processing capacity.

3.2 Labor Migration

·         Skilled Hindu and Sikh industrial workers migrated to India.

·         Muslim traders and managers shifted to Pakistan.

·         Production halted in several mills temporarily.

3.3 Trade Route Collapse

·         Karachi became Pakistan’s main port.

·         India lost western overland routes.

·         Punjab-based mills faced transport chaos.

3.4 Financial Dislocation

·         Assets were abandoned.

·         Banking systems collapsed temporarily.

·         Machinery and inventory were left behind.

 

4. Immediate Industrial Impact (1947-1955)

4.1 India

·         Textile mills faced cotton shortage.

·         Government introduced:

o    Import policies,

o    Price controls,

o    Industrial licensing.

4.2 Pakistan

·         Started with minimal spinning capacity.

·         Massive investment in:

o    Faisalabad (Lyallpur),

o    Karachi,

o    Lahore industrial zones.

Outcome:

·         Pakistan’s textile sector expanded rapidly in the 1950s–70s.

 

5. Case Study 1: Bombay Spinning and Weaving Company

Background

·         Founded: 1854 by Cowasji Davar.

·         Significance:

o    First modern cotton mill in India.

o    Demonstrated industrial viability.

Partition Impact

·         Remained in India.

·         Faced cotton shortages.

·         Shifted sourcing strategies.

·         Became symbol of Indian industrial resilience.

Lessons

·         Industrial clusters survive when infrastructure exists.

·         Policy support is crucial during supply shocks.

 

6. Case Study 2: Sutlej Cotton Mills (Okara – Now Pakistan)

Background

·         Established: 1934 by Birla Group.

·         Asia’s largest composite mill at inception.

·         Located in cotton-rich Punjab.

Partition Impact

·         Nationalized by Pakistan.

·         Became a base for Pakistan’s textile expansion.

Lessons

·         Geographic proximity to raw materials shapes industrial growth.

·         Political borders redefine ownership structures.

 

7. Long-Term Industrial Consequences

7.1 India

·         Shifted toward diversified textile manufacturing.

·         Development of:

o    Powerlooms,

o    Synthetic fabrics,

o    Export-oriented garment clusters.

7.2 Pakistan

·         Textile sector became economic backbone:

o    ~60% of total exports from textiles.

·         Growth driven by:

o    Cotton availability,

o    Export incentives,

o    Industrial expansion.

 

8. Industrial Evolution of Pakistani Textile Companies

Examples of major firms:

·         Nishat Mills (Punjab cotton base),

·         Gul Ahmed Textile Mills (Karachi),

·         Kohinoor Mills,

·         Interloop Ltd.

Modern developments:

·         Waterless dyeing innovation reduces water use by 60%.

·         Closed-loop wastewater recycling up to 95%.

 

9. Key Challenges Facing Pakistan Textile Sector Today

·         High energy costs and financing pressure.

·         Cotton crop disruptions.

·         Policy instability.

·         Export market dependence.

·         Global competition (Bangladesh, Vietnam).

 

10. Comparative Impact Analysis

Impact Area

India

Pakistan

Mills inherited

Majority

Very few

Cotton production

Reduced

High

Industrial workforce

Strong

Developing

Export growth

Gradual diversification

Textile-led economy

Industrial strategy

Diversified manufacturing

Cotton-based exports

 

11. Economic & Social Impacts

India

·         Industrial restructuring.

·         Growth of decentralized textile clusters.

Pakistan

·         Textile sector became:

o    Largest employer,

o    Export backbone,

o    Industrial foundation.

 

12. Lessons for Industrial Policy

1.      Geographic specialization can reshape economies.

2.      Political borders transform supply chains overnight.

3.      Industrial resilience depends on infrastructure and policy.

4.      Raw material control drives manufacturing power.

 

13. Conclusion

The 1947 partition fundamentally reshaped South Asia’s textile industry. India retained manufacturing capacity but lost raw cotton access, forcing diversification and technological growth. Pakistan inherited agricultural resources and rapidly built industrial capacity around textiles, eventually making it the backbone of its export economy. The partition illustrates how geopolitical events can reconfigure industrial ecosystems and redefine national economic trajectories for decades

If India & Pakistan Were Not Divided — or If Textile Industries Cooperate Today

A combined or collaborative textile ecosystem could create one of the largest integrated cotton-to-garment supply chains in the world. India provides strong manufacturing capacity, diversified textiles, design, and global brands, while Pakistan contributes high-quality cotton production and strong spinning/weaving specialization. Together, they could reduce raw material shortages, logistics costs, and import dependency, improving global competitiveness against China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam.

Joint operations could:

·         Create a complete value chain from cotton farming → yarn → fabric → garments → technical textiles.

·         Increase bargaining power in EU/US markets through large-scale supply.

·         Improve sustainability through shared water-efficient and energy-efficient technologies.

·         Expand exports to Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East through combined logistics corridors.

·         Attract global investment by forming the largest textile production hub in Asia after China.

 

Hypothetical Combined Export & Market Share Scenario

Indicator

India Alone

Pakistan Alone

Combined / Cooperative Potential

Global Textile Export Share

~8–9%

~3–4%

12–15%+ combined influence

Raw Cotton Availability

Moderate

High

Self-sufficient supply chain

Value-Added Garment Exports

Strong

Moderate

High-value integrated exports

Technical Textile Growth

Growing

Emerging

Rapid expansion potential

Logistics & Production Cost

Medium

Medium

Lower through regional integration

Global Market Ranking

Top 5

Top 10–12

Top 3–4 combined exporter

 

Potential Profit & Market Benefits

·         15–25% cost reduction through integrated cotton sourcing and manufacturing.

·         Higher export margins via shared R&D and automation.

·         Increased global buyer confidence due to large-scale supply capacity.

·         Ability to dominate mid-price global apparel markets.

·         Joint entry into technical textiles, medical textiles, and defense fabrics.

 

Short Analytical Conclusion

If undivided or strategically cooperative, India and Pakistan could form a vertically integrated textile super-cluster, combining agricultural strength with manufacturing scale. This synergy could significantly enhance export profits, reduce supply risks, and increase global market share, potentially positioning the region as the world’s second-largest textile export hub after China.

 

Projected Export Growth Graph (2025–2035 Cooperative Scenario)

Assumptions used in projection (research-based model):

·         Combined supply chains (cotton → yarn → garment exports).

·         Reduced logistics cost via regional integration.

·         Asia already contributes ≈70% of global textile exports, showing strong regional cooperation advantages.

·         Integration similar to regional textile value chains (e.g., US–Mexico or ASEAN networks).

Hypothetical Projection (Illustrative Academic Model)

Year

India Exports (USD Bn)

Pakistan Exports (USD Bn)

Combined Cooperative Exports (USD Bn)

2025

45

18

63

2027

52

22

80

2030

65

28

110

2033

78

35

145

2035

90

42

180

Interpretation:

·         Cooperation could increase exports faster than independent growth through shared value chains and raw material exchange.

·         Asia’s integrated production model proves that regional collaboration boosts value-added and exports.

 

📈 Graph Representation (Conceptual Line Projection

Exports USD (Bn)
200 |                                *
180 |                             *
160 |                          *
140 |                       *
120 |                    *
100 |                 *
 80 |             *
 60 |          *
 40 |       *
 20 |    *
    ------------------------------------------------
     2025 27 29 30 31 33 35
     Combined India-Pakistan Cooperative Scenario

 

📚 APA References

·         World Trade Organization. (2024). Global value chains sectoral profile: Textiles and clothing industry. WTO.

·         Shows Asia’s dominance and importance of regional textile integration.

·         Statista. (2025). Manufacturing wages in major textile-producing countries.

·         Demonstrates labor-cost competitiveness affecting export growth.

·         World Trade Organization. (2023). Textiles and clothing global trade analysis.

·         Provides data on global textile export share (~3.7% of world merchandise exports).

 

 


 

 

 

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