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“Divergent Paths: Bangladesh vs. India in Global Apparel Exports—A Comparative Performance Study of H1 FY26”

 Case Study Title

“Divergent Paths: Bangladesh vs. India in Global Apparel Exports—A Comparative Performance Study of H1 FY26”

 


Abstract

Bangladesh’s ready-made garment (RMG) industry, historically the engine of its export economy contributing over 80% of national foreign earnings, entered FY26 with contractionary pressures unseen since the COVID-19 recovery period. RMG exports fell 2.63% in July–December 2025 to USD 19.37 billion, reversing strong FY25 growth. In contrast, India’s apparel exports expanded modestly by ~2.3% in its comparable FY26 period, supported by subsidy-led competitiveness, export diversification, and trade repositioning amid global tariff disruptions.
This paper analyses the divergence in export performance across market destinations, policy environments, supply chain shocks, and structural competitiveness, and outlines strategic pathways for Bangladesh to retain market leadership against rising Indian competition.

 

Keywords

Bangladesh RMG, India apparel exports, EU market shift, US tariffs, LDC graduation, export competitiveness, FY26 H1, supply chain, China+1, GSP+, policy incentives

 

1. Introduction

Bangladesh and India are leading global apparel exporters, together supporting millions of textile workers and supplying over 10% of global clothing demand. Bangladesh dominates scale and low-cost mass manufacturing, while India’s structure combines integrated textiles and value-added fashion.
FY25 saw both countries rebound strongly from post-pandemic volatility, but FY26 marked a divergence—Bangladesh entered contraction, whereas India maintained modest growth.

 

2. Background and Sector Context

Bangladesh

  • RMG accounts for 80–84% of total exports
  • 4+ million workers (majority women)
  • EU and US account for nearly 70% of exports
  • LDC graduation risk by 2026–29 threatens duty-free privileges
  • Global giant in basic garments (knits, woven)

India

  • Apparel + textiles ~ USD 33B FY25
  • Export basket more diversified (fashion, home textiles, synthetics, technical fabrics)
  • Supported by government supply-chain incentives (PLI, RoSCTL, duty rebates)
  • Simultaneous domestic boom (retail + e-commerce)

 

3. Data Snapshot: FY26 Performance Comparison

Country

FY25 Full Exports (USD B)

H1 FY26 (USD B)

YoY H1 FY26 (%)

Bangladesh RMG

39.35

19.37

-2.63%

India Apparel

16.0

10.1

+2.3%

 

4. Market-Wise Comparison

4.1 European Union

  • Bangladesh: down 4.14%, led by Germany (-11.4%), France (-10.89%)
  • India: EU exports up ~11–13%, supported by:
    • China+1 sourcing shift
    • EU–India FTA negotiations
    • Rupee depreciation

4.2 United States

  • Bangladesh: flat (-0.10%), woven products weakest
  • India: modest gains; benefited from:
    • US tariffs on China redirecting orders
    • Strength in synthetics and athleisure

4.3 Non-Traditional Markets

  • Bangladesh: Non-traditional down 5.52%, India down 5–10% in some competitor territories
  • Drops driven by:
    • Price competition, Turkey and India tensions
    • Russia (-26.63%)
    • India (-10.44%)

4.4 Bright Spots

  • Bangladesh growth to:
    • China +29.8%
    • Canada +4.7%
    • UK +2.1%
  • India growth to:
    • Middle East retailers
    • Technical textiles in Africa & ASEAN

 

5. Key Drivers of Divergence

Bangladesh—Growth Constraints

  • Margin compression due to inflation + wage rises
  • EU recession + buyer price squeeze
  • IMF loan conditionality reduced government export assistance
  • LDC graduation removing duty-free GSP benefits (post-2029)
  • Competitors (India, Vietnam) entering Europe aggressively with subsidies

India—Growth Enablers

  • ₹7,000 crore support package (RoSCTL + TUFS + PLI textiles)
  • China+1 trade positioning
  • Faster compliance with ESG and traceability protocols
  • Integrated cotton–fabric–garment chain reduces input cost volatility

 

6. Competitive Edge Assessment

Factor

Bangladesh

India

Scale & labor cost

Very strong

Strong

Policy support

Weakening (IMF constraints)

Strengthening

Market diversity

Limited (EU/US heavy)

Broader

ESG/Green factories

Best-in-class (38 LEED Gold by 2025)

Improving

Technology adoption

Emerging

Faster investment

Tariff exposure

High post-LDC

Lower

 

7. Discussion: Strategic Implications

  • India is not displacing Bangladesh but absorbing incremental market share, especially from China’s retreat.
  • Bangladesh’s reliance on EU (48–50%) and US (20–22%) exposes vulnerability during demand slumps.
  • Bangladesh must invest beyond cost competitiveness—product differentiation, synthetic fibers, automation, traceability.
  • India’s advantage may narrow once Bangladesh negotiates GSP+ or bilateral FTAs.

 

8. Strategic Recommendations

Bangladesh

  1. Negotiate GSP+ extension before 2029
  2. Diversify markets: China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Brazil
  3. Shift to value-added segments: athleisure, denim finishing, niche fashion
  4. Green supply chain marketing for premium pricing
  5. Export ecosystem reform:
    • Fast-track bonded warehouse permission
    • Reduce energy tariffs for exporters
    • Restart targeted wage subsidies

India

  1. Sustain PLI & RoSCTL benefits
  2. Accelerate EU FTA finalization
  3. Expand synthetic/value-added textile base
  4. Invest in design + branding, not only manufacturing

 

9. Teaching Notes

This case fits courses on:

  • International Trade
  • Emerging Market Competitiveness
  • Industrial Policy & Globalization
  • Textile and Apparel Supply Chains

Learning Objectives:

  • Evaluate policy impacts on export competitiveness
  • Compare two nations facing similar opportunities differently
  • Assess LDC graduation consequences
  • Propose interventions in global value chains

 

10. Discussion Questions

  1. Why did Bangladesh’s export contraction deepen despite being more cost-competitive than India?
  2. Should Bangladesh pursue a subsidy-led model like India even under IMF scrutiny?
  3. How can Bangladesh leverage its environmental leadership for price premiums?
  4. Will India sustain growth once US/EU demand weakens or tariffs normalize?
  5. What bilateral agreements should Bangladesh prioritize post-LDC graduation?

 

11. Conclusion

Bangladesh and India entered FY26 navigating the same global turbulence—sluggish demand, tariff volatility, and supply chain realignment. Yet their performance diverged due to policy flexibility, market exposure, product mix, and structural support systems.
Bangladesh remains a scale leader but must now pivot towards resilience through market diversification, technology upgrades, and trade diplomacy. India’s incremental gains illustrate the power of coordinated industrial policy, but cannot assume permanent advantage.
The next five years—defined by Bangladesh’s LDC transition and India’s FTA push—will determine whether these neighbours evolve as rivals, complements, or cooperative production ecosystems in global fashion supply networks.

 

References (APA Style)

·         Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). (2025). Export performance dashboard.
Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). (2025). Monthly RMG export statistics.
Ministry of Commerce, Government of India. (2025). Trade statistics & apparel export update.
World Trade Organization. (2024). Global apparel supply chain competitiveness report.
IMF Country Report—Bangladesh (2025). Policy support and export-linked conditionality.
World Bank. (2025). Bangladesh LDC graduation readiness assessment.

 

 

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