When Cotton Unravels: Pests, Policy and Power in South Asia’s Cotton Economy

 When Cotton Unravels: Pests, Policy and Power in South Asia’s Cotton Economy

A Case-Cum-Research Study on Pakistan’s Cotton Collapse and Regional Spillovers

 

Abstract

Cotton remains the backbone of South Asia’s textile economy, directly sustaining millions of farmers and indirectly powering export-oriented garment industries. Yet, during 2025–26, the regional cotton system entered a phase of acute stress. India’s cotton production slowed to 25–30 million bales after a decade of stagnation, Pakistan’s output collapsed to 6.85 million bales—34% below target—while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka became increasingly vulnerable as import-dependent economies. At the same time, China consolidated its dominance through Xinjiang-based production supported by heavy subsidies. This case-cum-research paper examines Pakistan’s cotton crisis through the lens of pest pressure—particularly pink bollworm and whitefly—climate change, water politics, and policy failures, while situating the crisis within the broader South Asian and global cotton value chain. The study highlights structural vulnerabilities, competitive asymmetries, and strategic lessons for policymakers, agribusiness managers, and students of international business and agricultural economics.

Keywords

Cotton crisis, Pakistan agriculture, pink bollworm, whitefly, South Asia trade, Regional spillovers

 

1. Introduction: Cotton at the Crossroads

Cotton is not merely an agricultural commodity in South Asia; it is a strategic resource linking rural livelihoods, industrial employment, export earnings, and geopolitical trade relations. Pakistan’s textile sector alone contributes over 60% of export revenues and employs nearly 40% of industrial labor. Similarly, Bangladesh’s garment industry—heavily dependent on imported cotton—anchors its foreign exchange earnings. India, historically the world’s largest cotton producer, has functioned as a stabilizing supplier within the region.

However, the 2025–26 cotton season exposed deep cracks in this ecosystem. India’s production slowdown, Pakistan’s sharp output collapse, and rising import dependence across neighboring economies created a supply squeeze. Meanwhile, China insulated itself through domestic control, reshaping global cotton flows. This paper frames Pakistan’s cotton decline as the focal case, using it to explore broader questions of sustainability, competitiveness, and resilience in emerging-market agriculture.

 

2. Research Objectives and Questions

This case study pursues four key objectives:

1. To analyze the biological, environmental, and systemic causes of Pakistan’s cotton production decline.
2. To evaluate the relative impact of major pests—pink bollworm, whitefly, and jassid—on yield and quality.
3. To assess how India’s slowdown and China’s self-reliance reshape regional cotton trade dynamics.
4. To derive managerial and policy lessons for cotton-dependent economies.

Key research questions include:

• Why has Pakistan’s cotton production declined despite Bt adoption?
• Which pest exerts the highest economic damage, and why?
• How does India’s stagnation amplify vulnerabilities for Bangladesh and Pakistan?
• What strategic responses can restore resilience in South Asia’s cotton economy?

 

3. Methodology

The study adopts a qualitative case-cum-research approach, synthesizing secondary data from agricultural reports, trade statistics, and pest management studies. Comparative analysis is used to contrast Pakistan with India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and China. Pest impact is evaluated using reported yield-loss percentages, regional infestation patterns, and agronomic evidence from Sindh and Punjab.

 

4. Regional Cotton Landscape (2025–26)

4.1 India: From Anchor Producer to Stagnation

India’s cotton output has grown at a mere 0.25% CAGR over the past decade, peaking in 2019–20 before declining. Farmers increasingly shift to maize, pulses, and oilseeds, attracted by lower pest risk and faster returns. Although India remains largely self-sufficient, its reduced exportable surplus tightens regional supply, indirectly raising costs for Pakistan and Bangladesh.

4.2 Pakistan: The Epicenter of Crisis

Pakistan’s cotton production fell to 6.85 million bales in 2025–26 against a target of 10.18 million. Cultivated area declined by 11.5% as farmers abandoned cotton due to high uncertainty. The crisis is multi-dimensional—pests, climate stress, water shortages, and weak policy support reinforce each other.

4.3 Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Import-Dependent Vulnerability

Bangladesh emerged as the world’s largest cotton importer, sourcing over 8 million bales annually. Sri Lanka, with no domestic production, relies entirely on imports for its garment sector. Rising cotton prices, logistics costs, and new US tariffs (30% from August 2025) have eroded competitiveness, highlighting the risks of extreme import dependence.

4.4 China: Controlled Dominance

China commands 32% of global mill use and derives over 92% of its cotton from Xinjiang. Heavy subsidies and state support ensure stability despite trade barriers. Reduced Chinese import demand places pressure on exporters like Pakistan while reinforcing China’s strategic insulation.

 

5. Pakistan’s Cotton Production Collapse: A Deep Dive

5.1 Shrinking Cultivation Area

Cotton acreage declined to nearly 2 million hectares as farmers shifted to sugarcane and maize. The decision reflects rational risk management: cotton faces volatile yields, high pest-control costs, and delayed payments, while alternative crops offer quicker and more predictable returns.

5.2 Climate Stress and Environmental Shocks

Climate change has intensified unseasonal rainfall, floods, and heat stress. Flower shedding, boll drop, and shortened irrigation intervals became common during 2025–26. These stresses weakened plants, making them more susceptible to pest attacks.

5.3 Water Scarcity and the Indus System

Reduced Indus River flows pushed major reservoirs to dead storage levels. Poor irrigation infrastructure and governance failures compounded shortages during sowing and germination. Water stress directly lowered yields and indirectly worsened pest infestations.

 

6. Pest Pressures: The Core Production Constraint

6.1 Pink Bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella)

Pink bollworm remains the most destructive cotton pest in Pakistan. By boring into cotton bolls, it damages fiber quality and reduces lint recovery. In regions like Sindh’s Nara belt, yield losses reached 9–11%. The pest has developed resistance to Bt cotton, rendering earlier technological gains ineffective. Climate-driven temperature increases have extended its breeding cycles, intensifying late-season damage.

6.2 Whitefly (Bemisia tabaci)

Whitefly ranks close behind pink bollworm in economic impact. It weakens plants through sap sucking, contaminates lint with honeydew, and transmits Cotton Leaf Curl Virus Disease (CLCuVD). In 2025, some regions reported whitefly damage exceeding that of pink bollworm, particularly during July–September. Its dual role as pest and disease vector magnifies losses beyond visible infestation.

6.3 Jassid (Amrasca biguttula)

Jassid primarily affects crops early in the season, extracting cell sap and causing leaf curling and growth stunting. While losses are typically lower than those from pink bollworm, early damage can permanently reduce yield potential. Historically, unmanaged jassid outbreaks have caused severe regional yield declines.

6.4 Secondary Pests

Mealybug, thrips, and other bollworms contribute incrementally to losses. Though individually less damaging, they compound stress and facilitate disease transmission, particularly under weak integrated pest management (IPM).

 

7. Comparative Pest Impact Analysis

Pest	Damage Mechanism	Estimated Loss Share	Peak Period
Pink Bollworm	Boll boring, fiber degradation	Highest (9–11%)	Late season
Whitefly	Sap sucking, virus vector	Very high	July–September
Jassid	Leaf curling, stunting	Significant early	July

The analysis shows that pink bollworm remains the single most damaging pest, but whitefly’s systemic effects increasingly rival it.

 

8. Policy and Research Gaps

Pakistan’s cotton decline reflects chronic underinvestment in R&D, weak extension services, and poor regulation of pesticides. Farmers lack access to high-yield, pest-resistant seeds and reliable agronomic advice. Adulterated pesticides and fragmented governance further undermine productivity. Over a decade, production has fallen from nearly 14 million bales to under 7 million.

 

9. Strategic Implications and Regional Spillovers

India’s slowdown amplifies supply constraints, while China’s insulation reshapes trade flows. Pakistan’s dependence on imports (over 6 million bales annually) exposes its textile sector to price volatility. Bangladesh’s rising imports highlight similar risks. Without diversification, sustainability investments, and regional cooperation, South Asia’s cotton-textile value chain faces persistent instability.

 

10. Conclusion

Pakistan’s cotton crisis is not a single-cause failure but a convergence of pests, climate stress, water scarcity, and policy neglect. Pink bollworm and whitefly symbolize deeper systemic weaknesses. In contrast, China’s state-backed model demonstrates how strategic control can stabilize supply. For South Asia, the lesson is clear: cotton sustainability requires integrated pest management, climate-resilient practices, research investment, and regional coordination.

 

Teaching Notes

Case Positioning

This case is suitable for courses in Agricultural Economics, International Business, Supply Chain Management, and Sustainability Studies.

Learning Objectives

• Understand biological and economic drivers of agricultural decline.
• Analyze pest management as a strategic variable in agribusiness.
• Evaluate regional interdependence in commodity markets.
• Develop policy and managerial responses to systemic risk.

Discussion Questions

1. Why has Bt cotton failed to protect Pakistan from pink bollworm?
2. Should Pakistan prioritize domestic cotton revival or secure imports?
3. How does China’s cotton strategy differ structurally from South Asia’s?
4. What integrated response can reduce pest-related losses sustainably?

Suggested Assignment

Ask students to design a five-year cotton revival strategy for Pakistan, integrating agronomy, policy reform, and trade diversification.

References

Ø  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2023). FAOSTAT statistical database: Cotton production and trade. FAO.

Ø  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2024). Climate change impacts on cotton productivity in South Asia. FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

Ø  International Cotton Advisory Committee. (2024). World cotton outlook: Supply, demand, and trade. ICAC Secretariat.

Ø  International Trade Centre. (2023). Cotton and textile value chains in South Asia: Vulnerabilities and resilience. ITC.

Ø  Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan. (2024). Pakistan economic survey 2023–24. Islamabad: Finance Division.

Ø  Pakistan Central Cotton Committee. (2024). Annual cotton review: Pest incidence, yield decline, and seed challenges. PCCC.

Ø  Qureshi, A. S., Ahmad, Z., & Ali, R. (2023). Water scarcity, climate stress, and agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Agricultural Water Management, 279, 108202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108202 

Ø  Raza, A., Zafar, M. M., & Ali, A. (2022). Impact of pink bollworm infestation on cotton yield and farmer income in Pakistan. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 21(5), 1324–1336. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(21)63742-5

Ø  Reserve Bank of India. (2024). Cotton textiles and regional trade dynamics. RBI Bulletin.

Ø  United States Department of Agriculture. (2024). Cotton: World markets and trade. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Ø  World Bank. (2023). From farm to fashion: Strengthening South Asia’s cotton–textile supply chain. World Bank Publications.

Ø  Zulfiqar, F., & Thapa, G. B. (2018). Agricultural sustainability and resilience in Pakistan under climate change. Land Use Policy, 78, 348–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.048